| アイテムタイプ |
デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）その２(1) |
| 公開日 |
2026-03-30 |
| タイトル |
|
|
タイトル |
Aging and the Price Level : Irreversible Capital, Demographic Transitions, and the Shifting Phillips Curve |
|
言語 |
en |
| 作成者 |
DENG, Yongheng
INOUE, Tomoo
NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko
SHIMIZU, Chihiro
|
| 寄与者 |
|
|
寄与者タイプ |
Editor |
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|
姓名 |
Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
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|
所属機関名 |
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University |
| アクセス権 |
|
|
アクセス権 |
open access |
|
アクセス権URI |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| 主題 |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
population aging |
| 主題 |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
inflation |
| 主題 |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
irreversible investment |
| 主題 |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
overlapping generations |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
supply constraints |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
international panel data |
| 内容記述 |
|
|
内容記述タイプ |
Abstract |
|
内容記述 |
Why have the world's most rapidly aging economies experienced decades of low inflation followed by emerging supply-side price pressures? We propose a mechanism based on the interaction between demographic change and the irreversibility of physical capital. In a three-generation overlapping-generations model with Calvo pricing and irreversible investment (Ii ≥ 0), durable capital built during the demographic bonus period cannot be rapidly scrapped when population declines, creating a prolonged overhang of productive capacity relative to demand. As depreciation gradually erodes this overhang and the labor force continues to shrink, the economy eventually transitions from structural excess supply to a supply-constrained regime. Reduced-form evidence from 38 economies over 1965- 2019 is consistent with the model's predictions: aging is associated with lower inflation, the Phillips curve slope declines with the elderly share, and countries that experienced migration-driven population reversals exhibit more stable slopes-patterns that the irreversibility mechanism can account for. We interpret the negative Phillips curve slope estimated for Japan after 2015 as suggestive of the onset of the supply-constrained phase, though causal identification remains an important limitation of the international panel design. |
|
言語 |
en |
| 出版者 |
|
|
出版者 |
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University |
|
言語 |
en |
| 日付 |
|
|
日付 |
2026-03 |
|
日付タイプ |
Issued |
| 言語 |
|
|
言語 |
eng |
| 資源タイプ |
|
|
資源タイプ識別子 |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh |
|
資源タイプ |
technical report |
| 出版タイプ |
|
|
出版タイプ |
VoR |
|
出版タイプResource |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
| 関連情報 |
|
|
関連タイプ |
isPartOf |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
|
関連名称 |
RCESR Discussion Paper Series ; No. DP26-3 |
| 助成情報 |
|
|
|
助成機関識別子タイプ |
Crossref Funder |
|
|
助成機関識別子 |
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 |
|
|
助成機関名 |
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
|
研究課題番号 |
24H00012 |
|
|
研究課題番号URI |
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-24H00012/ |
|
|
研究課題名 |
日本の物価・不動産価格の変動-大規模ミクロデータを用いた解明と統計の再構築- |
| 助成情報 |
|
|
|
助成機関識別子タイプ |
Crossref Funder |
|
|
助成機関識別子 |
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 |
|
|
助成機関名 |
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science |
|
|
言語 |
en |
|
|
研究課題番号 |
20H00082 |
|
|
研究課題番号URI |
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-20H00082/ |
|
|
研究課題名 |
不動産市場とマクロ経済：大規模ミクロデータを用いた解明 |
| ページ数 |
|
|
ページ数 |
43 |
| Sponsorship |
|
|
値 |
This research was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS KAKENHI Grants 24H00012 and 20H00082). |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
E22 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
E31 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
E52 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
J11 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
O41 |
dp26-3_rcesr.pdf (1.3 MB)
