| アイテムタイプ |
デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）その２(1) |
| 公開日 |
2026-03-30 |
| タイトル |
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|
タイトル |
Too Many Houses, Too Few People : Demographic Optimism, Housing Oversupply, and Falling House Prices across Advanced Economies |
|
言語 |
en |
| 作成者 |
DENG, Yongheng
INOUE, Tomoo
NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko
SHIMIZU, Chihiro
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| 寄与者 |
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|
寄与者タイプ |
Editor |
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|
姓名 |
Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University |
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言語 |
en |
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所属機関名 |
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University |
| アクセス権 |
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|
アクセス権 |
open access |
|
アクセス権URI |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
demographic optimism |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
demographic pessimism |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
population bonus and onus |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
housing vacancy and oversupply |
| 主題 |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
主題Scheme |
Other |
|
主題 |
demographic forecast errors |
| 内容記述 |
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|
内容記述タイプ |
Abstract |
|
内容記述 |
In population bonus periods, optimism about future housing demand fuels rapid construction and self-reinforcing price appreciation. In population onus periods, pessimism-amplified by the systematic failure of governments to revise demographic projections downward in a timely manner-drives structural oversupply, rising vacancy rates, and prolonged price stagnation. We formalise this mechanism through a present-value model in which the demographic regime asymmetrically shifts expected rent growth and the discount rate, and test it using annual panel data for 16 advanced economies over 1975- 2019. Pooled mean-group estimation shows that a rising old-age share significantly depresses long-run real house prices; the unanticipated ageing component (-8.826) substantially exceeds the government-projected component (-5.005). A rising youth share raises prices. Demographic structure further conditions monetary policy transmission: interest-rate cuts stimulate housing markets far more strongly in young than in ageing economies. |
|
言語 |
en |
| 出版者 |
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|
出版者 |
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University |
|
言語 |
en |
| 日付 |
|
|
日付 |
2026-03 |
|
日付タイプ |
Issued |
| 言語 |
|
|
言語 |
eng |
| 資源タイプ |
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|
資源タイプ識別子 |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh |
|
資源タイプ |
technical report |
| 出版タイプ |
|
|
出版タイプ |
VoR |
|
出版タイプResource |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
| 関連情報 |
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関連タイプ |
isPartOf |
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|
言語 |
en |
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関連名称 |
RCESR Discussion Paper Series ; No. DP26-2 |
| 助成情報 |
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助成機関識別子タイプ |
Crossref Funder |
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|
助成機関識別子 |
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 |
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助成機関名 |
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science |
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|
言語 |
en |
|
|
研究課題番号 |
24H00012 |
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|
研究課題番号URI |
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-24H00012/ |
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研究課題名 |
日本の物価・不動産価格の変動-大規模ミクロデータを用いた解明と統計の再構築- |
| ページ数 |
|
|
ページ数 |
40 |
| Sponsorship |
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|
値 |
Shimizu gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS KAKENHI Grant 24H00012). |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
E31 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
J11 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
R21 |
| JEL |
|
|
値 |
R31 |
dp26-2_rcesr.pdf (381 KB)
