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Cash Demand and Demographic Changes in Japan
http://hdl.handle.net/10086/0002061067
http://hdl.handle.net/10086/00020610673c982100-6c06-45e0-997e-c2dc8b2af8a4
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
HIAS-E-145.pdf (728 KB)
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| Item type | デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）その２(1) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2025-10-21 | |||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||
| タイトル | Cash Demand and Demographic Changes in Japan | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 作成者 |
FUJIKI, Hiroshi
× FUJIKI, Hiroshi
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| 寄与者 | ||||||||
| 寄与者タイプ | Editor | |||||||
| 姓名 | Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | cash demand | |||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | population aging | |||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | demographic changes | |||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | cashless payment methods | |||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | cash hoarding | |||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||
| 内容記述 | This paper examines the future evolution of cash demand in Japan, amid rapid demographic aging and the increasing adoption of cashless payments. Despite a decline in cash use for daily transactions, aggregate cash demand has remained stable, likely due to cash hoarding by older generations. Using survey data from 2021 that separates cash held for daily use and hoarding purposes by age group, we project cash demand through 2070. Our baseline scenario assumes constant cash-holding behavior by cohort, while an alternative scenario incorporates reductions reflecting the spread of cashless payments. Adjustments for the underrepresentation of high-cash-holding households are made using methodologies from the distributional national wealth literature, which employs Pareto distributions to align microdata with aggregate statistics. Results suggest that cash on hand (COH) will decline by 1.5%–2.4% annually, and cash at home (CAH) by about 1% annually. The rate of decrease in cash demand is faster than the population decrease of 0.7%, as we assume that future older individuals will hoard less cash than current older individuals, and future younger individuals will use less cash for day-to-day payment due to the spread of cashless payments. We find that a 1% rise in deposit rates would cause a 20% decrease in CAH demand, a much stronger effect than demographic aging. Finally, we discuss the implications for the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, as declining cash demand could increase the Bank’s cost burden during monetary tightening. | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||
| 出版者 | Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 日付 | ||||||||
| 日付 | 2025-08-26 | |||||||
| 日付タイプ | Issued | |||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||||
| 資源タイプ | technical report | |||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||
| 関連タイプ | isPartOf | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 関連名称 | Discussion paper series ; No. HIAS-E-145 | |||||||
| ページ数 | ||||||||
| ページ数 | 36 | |||||||
