| アイテムタイプ |
デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）その２(1) |
| 公開日 |
2017-05-20 |
| タイトル |
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タイトル |
Implementing a Forecasting Methodology for PCT Applications at WIPO |
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言語 |
en |
| 作成者 |
Dehon, Catherine
Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno van
| en |
Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno van
|
| fr |
Universit? Libre de Bruxelles
|
Search repository
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| 寄与者 |
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寄与者タイプ |
Editor |
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姓名 |
Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University |
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言語 |
en |
| アクセス権 |
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アクセス権 |
open access |
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アクセス権URI |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| 内容記述 |
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内容記述タイプ |
Abstract |
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内容記述 |
This paper investigates the effectiveness of several methods intending to forecast the number of yearly PCT applications at WIPO. Forecasting exercises have been applied for total PCT applications and for 5 countries accounting for more than 70 per cent of total PCT applications. So far, with the available data, the best 'fit' is obtained either with yearly data on total PCT and the AR(1) method (as opposed to country-specific estimations that have been subsequently aggregated for total PCT previsions) or with panel data estimates that include economic variables (GDP and R&D) for 5 countries. The forecasts of total PCT applications in 2002 range between 120 and 127 thousands units and between 140 and 150 thousands units in 2003. Several avenues for improvement are suggested, including an improved linearization of the basic series (other than logarithmic transformation), the use of sector specific data (as opposed to country-specific), and the use of national priority applications for the prevision of the forthcoming declining growth period (or 'stationary' period). |
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言語 |
en |
| 出版者 |
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出版者 |
Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University |
| 日付 |
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日付 |
2003-09 |
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日付タイプ |
Issued |
| 言語 |
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言語 |
eng |
| 資源タイプ |
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資源タイプ識別子 |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh |
|
資源タイプ |
technical report |
| 出版タイプ |
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出版タイプ |
VoR |
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出版タイプResource |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
| 関連情報 |
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関連タイプ |
isPartOf |
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関連名称 |
IIR Working Paper ; No. 03-21 |
| ページ数 |
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ページ数 |
18 |
070iirWP03-21.pdf (227086 bytes)
