WEKO3
アイテム
The Economic Consequences of the 2018 US-China Trade Conflict: A CGE Simulation Analysis
https://doi.org/10.15057/71062
https://doi.org/10.15057/710629add9136-9c8b-4732-a6ae-2f0275a587b7
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
keizaikenkyu07201001.pdf (1.3 MB)
|
|
| アイテムタイプ | デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）その２(1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2021-02-01 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | The Economic Consequences of the 2018 US-China Trade Conflict: A CGE Simulation Analysis | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 作成者 |
Tsutsumi, Masahiko
× Tsutsumi, Masahiko
|
|||||||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | This paper aims at evaluating the economic consequences of the 2018 US-China trade conflict. The potential impact of the proposed tariff increases is calculated using a global CGE model. Capital deepening and technological spillover induced by trade are also taken into account to explore the longrun influence. We can derive the following implications. First, the additionally imposed tariffs on goods alone decline the GDP in the US and China by 0.1％ and 0.2％, respectively. The equivalent variation in the US and China is reduced by 9.8 billion and 35.2 billion USD, respectively. Although other countries gain from trade diversion, losses exceed gains globally. Second, considering the effect from capital deepening and technological spillover induced by trade makes the situation worse. The GDP in the US and China declines by 1.6％ and 2.5％, respectively. The equivalent variation in the US and China is reduced by 199.5 billion USD and 187.1 billion USD, respectively. Again, the trade diversion is not large enough to recover losses in these countries. Third, the imposed tariffs distort relative prices, resulting in changes to the global production structure. Both the US and China lose their comparative advantage in transport, electronic, and machinery equipment production, while other countries expand their production in these sectors. Finally, Chinaʼs retaliatory tariff increase worsens the US economy to some extent, but it comes at a cost to the Chinese economy. In the long run, retaliation is not an appropriate policy response. | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | 岩波書店 | |||||||||
| 日付 | ||||||||||
| 日付 | 2021-01-22 | |||||||||
| 日付タイプ | Issued | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||
| selfDOI | ||||||||||
| ID登録 | 10.15057/71062 | |||||||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 00229733 | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | AN00070761 | |||||||||
| 収録物名 | ||||||||||
| 収録物名 | 経済研究 | |||||||||
| 巻 | ||||||||||
| 巻 | 72 | |||||||||
| 号 | ||||||||||
| 号 | 1 | |||||||||
| 開始ページ | ||||||||||
| 開始ページ | 1 | |||||||||
| 終了ページ | ||||||||||
| 終了ページ | 19 | |||||||||
| JEL | ||||||||||
| 値 | F13 | |||||||||
| JEL | ||||||||||
| 値 | F17 | |||||||||
| JEL | ||||||||||
| 値 | F51 | |||||||||
